The people who run major oil companies aren't stupid.

Right now if they stuck with their normal markup for refining, gas would be $4 a gallon and they'd be posting record profits (instead of near-record profits).

The results of that wouldn't be pretty, for them.

Congress and Democrat candidates would make political hay before the election. A "windfall tax" would be enacted and tax credits for oil exploration would be repealed. Bush might veto that, but if he did even Republican congressmen running for re-election would be scrambling to override his veto.

The news media would convince Americans that ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are bigger enemies than Al Queda.

A Million-Mom caravan of S.U.V.'s would storm Washington, demanding to put Hillary in the Oval Office before the end of this year. Snipers on the White House roof would be picking 'em off, right through their Spandex jogging bras.

No, I'd say gas will stay under $3 a gallon until next November. After that, I don't know what the oil companies will do - they'll have to return to normal refining margins sometime. If there's a Democrat President and Congress, that may be a big problem for them.

Or it may not. After the election when the heat's off, they can probably bribe enough politicians of both parties to keep Congress off their ass. Then gas prices will go 'way up.

And in the meantime, those "near-record profits" ain't bad.